The panic in India and elsewhere emanates from statistical and epidemiological models which predict massive fatality rates if draconian action is not taken to curb the spread of COVID-19. On the face of it, the Indian data suggest no reason for panic, especially given India’s early and aggressive action in closing international borders to travellers from affected regions - much before such action was undertaken in places like the US and Europe. Contrast this with fatality rates as staggeringly high as 10 percent in Italy and in the US of 1.5 percent, just a little lower than India The other noteworthy feature of the Indian situation is a very low fatality rate when computed as a percentage of all reported cases, as low as 2.6 percent. Apart from outliers such as Italy, most countries have fatality rates around 1-2 percent give or take. Contrast this with fatality rates as staggeringly high as 10 percent in Italy and in the US of 1.5 percent, just a little lower than India. Despite its well-known flaws, Indian media, to say nothing of foreign media in India, would have jumped on such a story of alleged cover up. This might just be possible in a totalitarian state like China but it’s impossible in open and democratic India.
It is theoretically possible therefore that the infection rate in India is much higher but if this is true, then it raises another puzzle, why isn’t an already ill prepared public health system overwhelmed with people showing up with COVID-19 like symptoms? Why aren’t thousands of people on ventilators? Given India’s large elderly population and many a kind of respiratory problems due to pollution and other reasons, why aren’t thousands of people on ventilators and in overcrowded hospitals? If any of this has happened, it’s a well-guarded secret. Compare this to testing rates of more than 6000 in South Korea and more than 600 in Spain. So far, India has tested a little more than 27,000 samples or a testing rate of about 20 per million.
It has been suggested, including by me, that the low reported infection rate might reflect a very low testing rate in India. By any metric, India has a far less serious COVID-19 crisis than many advanced and emerging countries. What is more, of all the active cases, each and every one of them has shown only mild symptoms. Of these, 20 have died, and 66 have recovered. First, reported infections in India as of Maare 747 out of a total population of 1.3 billion. India has launched what by any standard is the most draconian and complete nation-wide lockdown of any country affected by novel Coronavirus or Covid-19.
Dire Straits? India’s Options In An Invasion of Taiwan.Friday Afternoon Talks | Countering Human Trafficking: Strengthening cross-border cooperation between India, Bangladesh, and Nepal.Is the India-Japan partnership Sustainable?: The Indo-Pacific in the Age of Ukraine Crisis.
0 kommentar(er)
